There are studies that Tesla FSD Supervised is enabling drivers scores to be elevated from 90 to 100 which reduces the Tesla insurance coverage premium by $70 monthly. This practically offsets the $99 monthly Tesla insurance coverage value.
For two years, I have predicted that Tesla FSD Supervised changing into safer than human and enabling elevated security would decrease Tesla insurance coverage prices. It will drive adoption in the direction of 50% within the USA the place insurance coverage prices are greater. It would improve adoption of FSD.
There may be nonetheless the issue that Tesla doesn’t insure non-Tesla automobiles. Individuals who personal a Tesla and a non-Tesla must get separate insurance coverage for every and this won’t work out financially.
If there’s a 10% improve in FSD adoption within the USA then this may be about 200,000 extra FSD offered. If this was 30% bought and 70% subscription then this may be $480 Million and $168 million within the yr with $168 million annual recurring income.
If there’s a 30% improve in FSD adoption (new and used automobiles) within the USA then this may be about 600,000 extra FSD offered. If this was 30% bought and 70% subscription then this may be $1.5 billion and ~$500 million within the yr with $500 million annual recurring income.
If there’s a 10% improve in FSD adoption within the USA, China and Europe then this may be about 800,000 extra FSD offered by Q1 2025. If this was 30% bought and 70% subscription then this may be $1.9 billion and $960 million within the yr with $960 million annual recurring income.
If there’s a 50% FSD adoption within the USA, China and Europe then this may be about 4 million extra FSD offered by Q1 2025. If this was 30% bought and 70% subscription then this may be $9.6 billion and ~$3.3. billion within the yr with $3.3 billion annual recurring income.
@Tesla insurance coverage is paying for many or the entire month-to-month value of FSD in my case.
I began at $163/mo for a MX plaid driving rating of 90. FSD Supervised 12.5.x has elevated my driving rating to 100 over only a few months and lowered my premiums by about $70… 🤯 pic.twitter.com/TozLKhDSq1
— Jeff Lutz 🔋 (@thejefflutz) August 19, 2024
I estimate Tesla’s U.S. FSD take charge is 23.7% in 2Q.
Methodology:
A) Tesla’s U.S fleet of HW3 / HW4 geared up autos (“Fleet”) was 1.53 million throughout 2Q 2024 (common).B) Seasonally adjusted, the common American drives round 3,750 miles in 2Q. Californians drives much less…
— AJ (@alojoh) July 28, 2024
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Chief and a well-liked Science blogger with 1 million readers monthly. His weblog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science Information Weblog. It covers many disruptive expertise and tendencies together with Area, Robotics, Synthetic Intelligence, Medication, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Identified for figuring out leading edge applied sciences, he’s presently a Co-Founding father of a startup and fundraiser for top potential early-stage corporations. He’s the Head of Analysis for Allocations for deep expertise investments and an Angel Investor at Area Angels.
A frequent speaker at companies, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity College speaker and visitor at quite a few interviews for radio and podcasts. He’s open to public talking and advising engagements.
